I think the perspective of epidemiologists is highly important and valid as infectious diseases are what they know the most about. Out of anyone, with the little knowledge about the disease that exists, epidemiologists are the ones who can make predictions and suggestions about how to combat this virus.

Fact-Checked Source: Emily Joan Elliot's interview "MSU Epidemiologist Speaks Frankly about COVID-19 Dangers"

Looking Deeper: Five Facts Checked

Claim #1: "According to Paneth, age 30 seems to be the general threshold for people who will fall ill due to COVID-19."

Fact Check: A report containing an analysis of many cases from China showed that 90% of infected people in their study were older than 30, which proves that the age of 30 seems to have some significance in regard to who falls ill with COVID-19 . I think it should be noted that this data came from 2019, previous to the widespread outbreak, and no other information could be found about a specific threshold age of infection. Many sources claimed generally that people over the age of fifty along with people who are immuno-comprimised were more at risk.

This fact intrigued me as most sites and graphs I look at use the number of cases to determine if a state is "flattening the curve" not the deaths. However, as the pandemic has continued more sites are starting to use either the daily confirmed cases or the number of deaths per day to measure the curve of cases in a particular area.

Claim #2: Paneth stated that given the issues with testing enumerated above, our statistics on the number of people infected are inadequate. He believes that we will need to look at the number of people who die daily to see if we are flattening the curve.

Fact Check:  Dr. Paneth had the interviewer include this link to look at the trends. What Dr. Paneth suggested is exactly what other companies mapping the coronavirus's spread started doing to see which states were flattening the curve after this interview was done. The source he linked put cases per day and deaths per day on graphs side by side, and the death rate shows the flattening, but the number of cases still show an increase on many graphs. So, Dr. Paneth's statement appears to be true. The link below shows the death rate side by side with the case rates.

Claim #3: "After initial infection, it usually takes 2 to 14 days for symptoms to manifest."

Fact Check: This is factual and is on the CDC’s website about the coronavirus. This is a widely known fact about COVID-19's affects that many people know and is used by many news outlets and online sources to prevent the spread of the coronavirus. I just thought it was important to fact check a widely used statement.

Claim #4: "It took the United States nearly two months to execute the same number of tests as South Korea did in one week."

Fact Check: I believe this is an estimate by Dr. Paneth because I couldn’t find these exact numbers on this fact. Any source I looked at, regarding a comparison of testing between South Korea and the United States, mentioned different statistics other than this one yet similar. According to the CDC's website, by February 16th, the United States had tested 800 people (2.4 tests per million) compared to South Korea had 8,000 (154.7 tests per million). Until the beginning of April, South Korea was still ahead of us in the amount of testing done.

As of the time of this interview, there had been twenty-four deaths in the state of Michigan, and I knew that this fact would be difficult to back up because of the enormous amount of information available. However, Dr. Paneth included a link and mentioned the vast changes in the number of cases.

Claim #5: "So far, it seems all deaths in Michigan occurred in patients over age 50, many of whom had underlying conditions."

Fact Check: This comment was made back on the 24th of March, so this is not considered a fact anymore of the state of Michigan as this information isn't accessible. But Dr. Paneth linked the updated statistics below which includes the ages and mentioned that the statistics for COVID-19 are always changing. I felt like I should include that there have been deaths of people who did not have underlying conditions and who were not over the age of fifty currently. 

Analytic Essay

What Does an Epidemiologist Really Think About the COVID-19 Pandemic and the United States's Response?

Epidemiologists spend their entire lives studying contagious diseases: how they affect the body, how they spread, and how to stop them. When it comes to COVID-19, it seems like epidemiologists and physicians are the people we should be turning to for information about this virus and how to prevent ourselves from becoming ill. I explored the perspective of highly-respected Michigan State University physician and epidemiologist, Nigel Paneth. He believes that many didn't take the disease seriously enough when it first emerged in the state of Michigan, and some still aren’t taking enough precautions for how serious this virus is, specifically young people (Elliot). 

Dr. Panth, in an online interview with ELi, East Lansing info., described his opinions on social distancing: how to do it properly, the current state of testing in Michigan, and what he believes is the next step towards finding a cure or treatment for this disease. 

Dr. Paneth believes that the United States as a country was far behind in obtaining the proper testing for COVID-19 as well as the state of Michigan. From his experience, he claims that many testing sites were turning people away who were considered low-risk or didn’t show more than one symptom due to a shortage of protective equipment. However, this interview was published in March, prior to the large increase in both testing and masks and gloves in April. 

Social distancing seems to be Dr. Paneth’s main concern and how he believes we can combat the virus until a solution, such as a treatment, is found. He says that, ideally, 90% of the population should stay home as much as possible only leaving for “essential” reasons. When asked about how long social distancing will have to last, Dr. Paneth didn’t have a clear answer as there’s not enough data to predict. Dr. Paneth's ideal solution would test everyone weekly; positive cases with mild symptoms would stay at home and severe would go to the hospital. The people who tested negative would have less restrictions and could continue their daily lives. But, due to the current state of testing, Dr. Paneth believes this is not possible (Elliot).

To contextualize Dr. Paneth’s statements about social distancing guidelines, “Listen to the People”: Public Deliberation About Social Distancing Measures in a Pandemic has great insights into the reasons why social distancing may be hard for some people. Published in 2009, this study had people discuss the most difficult about potentially sheltering in place or social distancing. The main concern brought up was the security of their job and economic strain. This study also showed a large opposition to closing religious sites and public education. This study is proof that, long before this pandemic, social distancing would be easier said than done across a large population (Baum, Jacobson, and Goold, 2009). Now that most of the world is under social distancing guidelines, many of these ideas have come to light and social distancing is being protested by some groups of people. This shows that despite epidemiologists suggesting this is the best way to protect against virus transmission, some feel that this recommendation is unrealistic.

Not only has Dr. Paneth studied the spread of infectious diseases in the past, he is also working on a possible cure or treatment for COVID-19. He has been connecting with other physicians around the country to come up with a potential treatment using the convalescent serum, taking the antibodies of an infected person to build up uninfected people’s immune systems against the virus. Dr. Paneth mentioned that he has teamed up with physicians from both Mayo Clinic and John Hopkins to develop a website helping doctors across the country access information about the serum. Doctors are also able to post data from their clinical trials involving the convalescent serum to track its progress (Elliot). Epidemiologists and physicians around the country appear to be teaming up to find a quick solution that doesn't involve the intense and long process of creating a vaccine.

I think it is important to include Dr. Paneth’s perspective on our website because, as an epidemiologist and a physician, he has studied how these kinds of diseases work and has seen them in action before. He has valuable insight into how effective social distancing can be due to knowledge of how far the virus can travel through air. As a member of the at risk population, he can share his story of how he has behaved in this pandemic to set an example for others who value his opinion. 

References