This site requires Javascript to be turned on. Please enable Javascript and reload the page.

COVID-19 Pandemic Perspectives India (Tushya Mehta) The perspective that this page is exploring is the perspective of the largest democracy of the world- India. It is also the second-most populous country in the world and so understanding how the nation is dealing with this crisis is crucial. The country is another giant like China where things could go very wrong and according to WHO may direct the future of this pandemic. I am exploring what the citizens are feeling and how they are responding to the pandemic. I have studied the Prime Minister’s speech on the nationwide lockdown to understand the action being taken., I used media/journalistic sources from TIME and NewYorker to see how the governments decisions are impacting the people. Using previous Public health studies I tried to understand why the decisions being taker are necessary and how prepared India actually is?

MSU Epidemiologist Speaks Frankly about COVID-19 dangers

This page has annotations:

Contents of this annotation:

This page is referenced by:

MSU Epidemiologist and COVID-19 Researcher (Grace Bonnema) 31 plain 2020-04-26T16:06:32-07:00
I think the perspective of epidemiologists is highly important and valid as infectious diseases are what they know the most about. Out of anyone, with the little knowledge about the disease that exists, epidemiologists are the ones who can make predictions and suggestions about how to combat this virus.
Fact-Checked Source: Emily Joan Elliot's interview "MSU Epidemiologist Speaks Frankly about COVID-19 Dangers"
This is an interview from Eli (East Lansing information) of MSU Epidemiologist-Physician, Dr. Paneth. This is the source used to determine and analyze an epidemiologists perspective on the COVID-19 outbreak.
- MSU Epidemiologist Speaks Frankly about COVID-19 dangers (Line 1 - 20)
Looking Deeper: Five Facts Checked
Here we look at five facts from the interview with Dr. Paneth and see where these facts originated from and how true they are today compared to the date the interview was published, March 24th 2020.

I thought that the claim below was an interesting one to look into because I have heard many claims about either everyone being able to becoming severely infected or just the older and more at-risk populations with underlying conditions. When I first read this interview, the main population who seemed to be most affected by COVID-19 was the older population, so thirty seemed young to me.

Claim #1: "According to Paneth, age 30 seems to be the general threshold for people who will fall ill due to COVID-19."
Fact Check: A report containing an analysis of many cases from China showed that 90% of infected people in their study were older than 30, which proves that the age of 30 seems to have some significance in regard to who falls ill with COVID-19 . I think it should be noted that this data came from 2019, previous to the widespread outbreak, and no other information could be found about a specific threshold age of infection. Many sources claimed generally that people over the age of fifty along with people who are immuno-comprimised were more at risk.

This fact intrigued me as most sites and graphs I look at use the number of cases to determine if a state is "flattening the curve" not the deaths. However, as the pandemic has continued more sites are starting to use either the daily confirmed cases or the number of deaths per day to measure the curve of cases in a particular area.
Claim #2: Paneth stated that given the issues with testing enumerated above, our statistics on the number of people infected are inadequate. He believes that we will need to look at the number of people who die daily to see if we are flattening the curve.

Fact Check: Dr. Paneth had the interviewer include this link to look at the trends. What Dr. Paneth suggested is exactly what other companies mapping the coronavirus's spread started doing to see which states were flattening the curve after this interview was done. The source he linked put cases per day and deaths per day on graphs side by side, and the death rate shows the flattening, but the number of cases still show an increase on many graphs. So, Dr. Paneth's statement appears to be true. The link below shows the death rate side by side with the case rates.
I chose to include this fact as I felt that most people see this as common knowledge, and I wanted to prove that this is factual. But, I also thought it was important to point out that it does not only take fourteen days to manifest, it can take two and has in some cases. I think it is important to note that this range has large amount of variance.
Claim #3: "After initial infection, it usually takes 2 to 14 days for symptoms to manifest."
Fact Check: This is factual and is on the CDC’s website about the coronavirus. This is a widely known fact about COVID-19's affects that many people know and is used by many news outlets and online sources to prevent the spread of the coronavirus. I just thought it was important to fact check a widely used statement.
Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, there have been many comparisons to the way South Korea and the United States have handled the use of tests for the outbreak. Both countries had their first positive test on the same day, but have vastly different populations to test. There are many conflicting opinions about this issue, especially currently in politics.
Claim #4: "It took the United States nearly two months to execute the same number of tests as South Korea did in one week."
Fact Check: I believe this is an estimate by Dr. Paneth because I couldn’t find these exact numbers on this fact. Any source I looked at, regarding a comparison of testing between South Korea and the United States, mentioned different statistics other than this one yet similar. According to the CDC's website, by February 16th, the United States had tested 800 people (2.4 tests per million) compared to South Korea had 8,000 (154.7 tests per million). Until the beginning of April, South Korea was still ahead of us in the amount of testing done.

As of the time of this interview, there had been twenty-four deaths in the state of Michigan, and I knew that this fact would be difficult to back up because of the enormous amount of information available. However, Dr. Paneth included a link and mentioned the vast changes in the number of cases.
Claim #5: "So far, it seems all deaths in Michigan occurred in patients over age 50, many of whom had underlying conditions."
Fact Check: This comment was made back on the 24th of March, so this is not considered a fact anymore of the state of Michigan as this information isn't accessible. But Dr. Paneth linked the updated statistics below which includes the ages and mentioned that the statistics for COVID-19 are always changing. I felt like I should include that there have been deaths of people who did not have underlying conditions and who were not over the age of fifty currently.
Analytic Essay
What Does an Epidemiologist Really Think About the COVID-19 Pandemic and the United States's Response?
Epidemiologists spend their entire lives studying contagious diseases: how they affect the body, how they spread, and how to stop them. When it comes to COVID-19, it seems like epidemiologists and physicians are the people we should be turning to for information about this virus and how to prevent ourselves from becoming ill. I explored the perspective of highly-respected Michigan State University physician and epidemiologist, Nigel Paneth. He believes that many didn't take the disease seriously enough when it first emerged in the state of Michigan, and some still aren’t taking enough precautions for how serious this virus is, specifically young people (Elliot).
Dr. Panth, in an online interview with ELi, East Lansing info., described his opinions on social distancing: how to do it properly, the current state of testing in Michigan, and what he believes is the next step towards finding a cure or treatment for this disease.
Dr. Paneth believes that the United States as a country was far behind in obtaining the proper testing for COVID-19 as well as the state of Michigan. From his experience, he claims that many testing sites were turning people away who were considered low-risk or didn’t show more than one symptom due to a shortage of protective equipment. However, this interview was published in March, prior to the large increase in both testing and masks and gloves in April.
Social distancing seems to be Dr. Paneth’s main concern and how he believes we can combat the virus until a solution, such as a treatment, is found. He says that, ideally, 90% of the population should stay home as much as possible only leaving for “essential” reasons. When asked about how long social distancing will have to last, Dr. Paneth didn’t have a clear answer as there’s not enough data to predict. Dr. Paneth's ideal solution would test everyone weekly; positive cases with mild symptoms would stay at home and severe would go to the hospital. The people who tested negative would have less restrictions and could continue their daily lives. But, due to the current state of testing, Dr. Paneth believes this is not possible (Elliot).
To contextualize Dr. Paneth’s statements about social distancing guidelines, “Listen to the People”: Public Deliberation About Social Distancing Measures in a Pandemic has great insights into the reasons why social distancing may be hard for some people. Published in 2009, this study had people discuss the most difficult about potentially sheltering in place or social distancing. The main concern brought up was the security of their job and economic strain. This study also showed a large opposition to closing religious sites and public education. This study is proof that, long before this pandemic, social distancing would be easier said than done across a large population (Baum, Jacobson, and Goold, 2009). Now that most of the world is under social distancing guidelines, many of these ideas have come to light and social distancing is being protested by some groups of people. This shows that despite epidemiologists suggesting this is the best way to protect against virus transmission, some feel that this recommendation is unrealistic.
Not only has Dr. Paneth studied the spread of infectious diseases in the past, he is also working on a possible cure or treatment for COVID-19. He has been connecting with other physicians around the country to come up with a potential treatment using the convalescent serum, taking the antibodies of an infected person to build up uninfected people’s immune systems against the virus. Dr. Paneth mentioned that he has teamed up with physicians from both Mayo Clinic and John Hopkins to develop a website helping doctors across the country access information about the serum. Doctors are also able to post data from their clinical trials involving the convalescent serum to track its progress (Elliot). Epidemiologists and physicians around the country appear to be teaming up to find a quick solution that doesn't involve the intense and long process of creating a vaccine.
I think it is important to include Dr. Paneth’s perspective on our website because, as an epidemiologist and a physician, he has studied how these kinds of diseases work and has seen them in action before. He has valuable insight into how effective social distancing can be due to knowledge of how far the virus can travel through air. As a member of the at risk population, he can share his story of how he has behaved in this pandemic to set an example for others who value his opinion.
References
Baum, N. M., Jacobson, P. D., & Goold, S. D. (2009). “Listen to the People”: Public Deliberation About Social Distancing Measures in a Pandemic. The American Journal of Bioethics, 9(11), 4–14. doi: 10.1080/15265160903197531

This source is from The American Journal of Bioethics, and although it is a study, it's a very humanistic or HPS-related approach to examining how social distancing will impact people's lives and the opinions people have on its difficulty. The article doesn't mention specifics about numbers or statistical analysis, it is all about the discussions people had and which issues commonly came up when discussing a "stay at home" order or social distancing for a pandemic. Many people were very upset about various issues that were similar to what people are upset with today, so I thought it would be interesting to include.

Coronavirus Cases: (2020, March 16). Retrieved April 18, 2020, from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

This is a source that was linked by Dr. Paneth in his interview with Eli. He said that this is a continuously updated website on the number of COVID-19 cases in various countries, states, etc. This also includes a statistical breakdown by age, gender, race, and all kinds of other factors potentially affecting who is getting sick and why.
Elliot, E. J. (2020, March 24). MSU Epidemiologist Speaks Frankly about COVID-19 Dangers. Retrieved April 5, 2020, from https://eastlansinginfo.org/content/msu-epidemiologist-speaks-frankly-about-covid-19-dangers

This is the original source that I chose to use for examining an epidemiologist's perspective on COVID-19. Dr. Nigel Paneth discusses his true opinion on this virus, social distancing precautions, and a potential source for a treatment or cure that he has been collaborating on. I found this article interesting as he works at MSU as a physician, researcher, and epidemiologist, and he also frequently mentioned that he is a member of the "at risk" population because of his age and mentioned his daily schedule to set an example for how cautious one should be.

MDmetrix l COVID-19 Projections. (n.d.). Retrieved April 18, 2020, from https://www.mdmetrix.com/covid-19-projections

This is another source that Dr. Paneth linked in his interview. When he was discussing that the death rate should be used to determine if people are flattening the curve. He added this for people to take a look and form their own opinions about the trends we are seeing in each state and in our country.

Symptoms of Coronavirus. (2020, March 20). Retrieved April 14, 2020, from https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/symptoms-testing/symptoms.html

This source is from the CDC I included it when Dr. Paneth was discussing some facts that I believe are now general knowledge amongst most of the population. Specifically, fact-checking the incubation period for the virus. I think this source has a lot of good information on the virus and the symptoms, but there are still many unknowns out there. But, I think the CDC is a great place to check and see if any changes have been made with the symptoms, new advances, treatments, etc.

Wu Z, McGoogan JM. Characteristics of and Important Lessons From the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Outbreak in China: Summary of a Report of 72 314 Cases From the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. JAMA. 2020;323(13):1239–1242. doi:10.1001/jama.2020.2648

This source was difficult to find, but the quote from Dr. Paneth came directly from this report that analyzed a couple thousand cases from China through their Center for Disease Control and Prevention. This study proved Dr. Paneth's statement that 30 seems to be the threshold age for falling ill; however, this study was done back in 2019 prior to this disease coming onto the world's stage. I have seen many news articles noting the deaths or severe illness of people under 30, so this just means there's a lot of variance in what we know about the virus and how it functions.