Folder 5
Speculation about Tito’s Likely Successor
By Tracy HeimIn the tense period of Soviet Union containment, the United States closely monitored countries on the edge of communist ideology, specifically Yugoslavia. Folder 5, box 232 of the LBJ Presidential Library’s archival collection on Yugoslavia contains previously confidential information on United State foreign interests during the 1960s. Neither fully aligned with the Communist Party nor western democracy, Yugoslavia was an important factor in the United States strategy of containment. Declassified US intelligence reports show that the President Johnson administration closely watched the movements of Yugoslavia’s key political players. Multiple CIA Special Reports and White House memorandums illustrate how US officials monitored the correspondence, public speeches, and political orientation of then-President of Yugoslavia, Josip Tito. In addition to watching President Tito, one CIA Special Report describes a potential successor to Tito’s political position. Archival document 8 in folder 5, box 232 describes the growing influence of Yugoslavia’s parliament on political processes and argues assembly president Edvard Kardelj as a likely successor.
In the same folder, a confidential telegram from 1964, declassified only in September 1991, argues for immediate US approval of bank credit to help develop the Yugoslav economy. In document 20, ambassador Charles Elbrick addresses the Department of State from Belgrade and reminds that, “Since 1948 every American administration, after thorough study, has determined that an economically strong and politically independent Yugoslavia [is] in US national interest.” This argument explains why the United States spent considerable time and effort monitoring the developments within the non-aligned country. Issuing credit to promote economic projects strengthened America’s interest in Yugoslavia.
Returning to Document 8, the 1965 special report titled “Yugoslav Parliament Growing Increasingly Independent” outlines positive growth in democratic principles, as opposed to decreased political participation. Yugoslavia’s Federal Assembly gained authority from a new constitution in 1963 that reorganized the parliament and promoted economic liberalization. The legislative body began to be more active in debating policies put forth by the executive branch, and the report cites president of the assembly, Edvard Kardelj, as the father of the movement. While the parliament’s more active role does not indicate a significant shift away from Communist Party control, it shows that there was a trend towards liberalism in national affairs. This democratic trend and the future potential influence of Kardelj as assembly president places him in a position in which, following the death of Tito, he could challenge the president heir apparent, Vice President Aleksandar Ranković. While the death of Tito would not occur for another 15 years, the preparation for Yugoslavia’s future shows America’s political concern for countries in the Eastern Bloc.