Monte Carlo Fallacy

The Monte Carlo Fallacy in action

We can see the MCF in action in every game of chance. Perhaps the most popular example is that of roulette: Assume one is betting on red just because a succession of black numbers occurred in the previous spins. If a black number occurs again, the player might continue to bet on red and perhaps might do that again and again if a red is stubborn to appear, on the basis of the belief that the long series of black is very likely to come to an end for the “normal” frequency given by probability of occurrence of red and black (slightly less than 50%) to be restored or fairly balanced. Of course, the long succession of black may result in a big loss of money for the roulette player, either in case of static bets or progressive (martingale-like) bets. The latter option may result in even bigger losses and ruin if a very long succession of black occurs. Therefore, that belief leads to decision-making and a certain gambling behavior that is problematic.
            Before analyzing where this fallacious belief comes from, let’s say that the physical possibility of a long or very long succession of “unexpected” outcomes (like the black in our example) really does exist. There is no rational reason to believe that this is not the case. Black might occur 10, 100, or 1,000 times in a row and perhaps the player knows that. Still, they might doubt the possibility (“100 times?! That’s crazy!”) and form a personal belief that involves the prediction that the unfavorable series will end shortly.
            The longest succession of the same color in roulette was registered at the Monte Carlo Casino on August 18, 1913, when the ball fell in black 26 times in a row. This is where the name of this cognitive distortion originated. However, no one really knows whether 26 is actually the record, as games outside a casino or unregistered such “oddities” were possible at any time and any place.
            If the player is convinced about the physical possibility of the occurrences of, say, 10,000 unfavorable outcomes in a row in a game (even though this is unlikely to happen during his lifetime), it is a first step in correcting his or her MCF. But the picture is more complex than that.
            Of course, the MCF refers and applies to any kind of gambling outcomes, not only roulette numbers – coin faces, die faces, cards, lottery or bingo numbers, slot lines, or scratch-ticket lines. It may manifest in a single play, in a succession of plays, or even in the succession of stages of the same game (like blackjack or other card games, or bingo).