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Monte Carlo FallacyMain MenuThe Monte Carlo Fallacy in actionHow the MCF manifests in gamblingFactors causing the MCFExplaining what triggers the MCFTheoretical correction of the MCFExplaining how the MCF can be corrected relative to its causesAfterwordReferencesCatalin Barboianu2714afa2b42477aae0dcb0f11d197a4fd1fe8acb
Introduction
12024-08-29T01:34:04-07:00Catalin Barboianu2714afa2b42477aae0dcb0f11d197a4fd1fe8acb458901What is the definition and nature of the Monte Carlo Fallacyplain2024-08-29T01:34:22-07:00Catalin Barboianu2714afa2b42477aae0dcb0f11d197a4fd1fe8acbThe Monte Carlofallacy is briefly defined as one’s fallacious belief that the likelihood of the occurrence of a random event is influenced by previous instances of that type of event. It is the belief that if a particular event has occurred more frequently than “normal” (with respect to its probability) during the past, it is less likely to happen in the future or near future (or vice versa), when it has otherwise been established that the probability of that event does not depend on what has happened in the past. The Monte Carlofallacy (MCF) is the most known and frequent gambling cognitive distortion, even though it also manifests in daily life beyond gambling. It is also called the gambler’s fallacy, but I prefer the former term, as there are other gambling cognitive distortions and fallacies as well. It is also the gambling distortion toughest to correct, for three reasons: 1) it is not especially mathematically related; 2) it has a neurological-psychological component; and 3) correction assumes “mistrust” in the mathematical notion of probability and a non-mathematical perception of infinity. I will detail all these three features in what follows.