Monte Carlo Fallacy

Introduction

The Monte Carlo fallacy is briefly defined as one’s fallacious belief that the likelihood of the occurrence of a random event is influenced by previous instances of that type of event. It is the belief that if a particular event has occurred more frequently than “normal” (with respect to its probability) during the past, it is less likely to happen in the future or near future (or vice versa), when it has otherwise been established that the probability of that event does not depend on what has happened in the past. 
         The Monte Carlo fallacy (MCF) is the most known and frequent gambling cognitive distortion, even though it also manifests in daily life beyond gambling. It is also called the gambler’s fallacy, but I prefer the former term, as there are other gambling cognitive distortions and fallacies as well. It is also the gambling distortion toughest to correct, for three reasons: 1) it is not especially mathematically related; 2) it has a neurological-psychological component; and 3) correction assumes “mistrust” in the mathematical notion of probability and a non-mathematical perception of infinity. I will detail all these three features in what follows.