The Questions

Can a NHL team's regular season success be predicted by team performance metrics? Can a model be created to assess the future success of a franchise by their current performance levels? If certain concrete goals are reached, is a team guaranteed a spot in the Stanley Cup Playoffs?

The NHL Regular Season

Every NHL season is divided into the regular season and the Stanley Cup Playoffs. The goal each year is to win the Stanley Cup Playoffs, and to hoist the Stanley Cup, signifying their team is the champion of the NHL. Though the Stanley Cup is unanimously the most coveted prize in hockey, reaching the Stanley Cup Playoffs is no easy task. To have an opportunity to play for the Stanley Cup, each team must be one of the best 16 teams in the regular season. Therefore, both halves of the NHL season are important for any team looking to win a championship.  

Each NHL team plays 82 regular season games, 41 at home, and 41 at their opponent. The rankings by which the Stanley Cup Playoff teams are determined is determined by "points." For each regular season win (overtime and shootout wins included), a team is awarded two points. For each loss, a team's point total remains the same. If a game is tied when the allotted 60 minutes of game time runs out, overtime is played. If no team scores in overtime, a shootout occurs. The losing team in both of these scenarios is awarded a single point. The 16 teams with the most points at the end of the NHL regular season compete in the playoffs for the Stanley Cup.

The Stanley Cup serves as a motivating factor throughout the NHL season, which typically runs from October to April. A team must perform at a high level throughout the season to keep their hopes of raising the Stanley Cup alive. Such a grueling regular season runs from October to April, and induces ups and downs for every NHL team. NHL analyst Adam Gretz found that since the 2005-2006 regular season, all but two teams who reached 95 points have made the playoffs [1]. That means that just under 99% of teams that reach 95 regular season points make the playoffs. So if 95 points is the threshold, what does it take to get there?


[1] Adam Gretz, "The race to 95 points: What NHL teams need to do to make playoffs," CBSSports.com, June 02, 2015, , accessed July 02, 2017, http://www.cbssports.com/nhl/news/the-race-to-95-points-what-nhl-teams-need-to-do-to-make-playoffs/.